a personal treatise on the Tour

nate, sorry it's taken me so long to get this down, "busy" is my new middle name... i warn all, this is long. once you get me going, i'm unstoppable. and i haven't done any research as to predictions for this year yet...gotta get back into velonews.com - the season has begun!

after reading all of lance's biographies (auto and otherwise), i have great respect for jan ullrich. he's just so big (making him a cycling underdog, much like lance pre-cancer, except the man won the Tour) and enjoys life (yes, he's not always in the best of shape come race season), that you can't help but love the guy. if he raced nearly any other era besides the lance era i believe he'd go down as one of the all-time greats and with the most Tour victories. so while i acknowledge his peak performances are likely behind him, i can't help but root for him to come back out on top. i can't imagine his frustrations at constantly being 2nd best.
vinokourov i can't stand, and i know he and ullrich are/were friends...or at least training buddies, that whole eastern bloc training regime when they were kids thing that they have in common. but he doesn't respect the sport. case in point- last day of the tour when it's tradition to just ride unless you're still going for the green jersey and he instead endangered a lot of riders. he had to pointlessly try to up his place by one slot on a dangerously wet course b/c he just felt like it. it surely wasn't going to get him a better contract or anything. i'm just glad postal didn't take him like some rumors i had heard. i just can't vote for the guy to win...although he may be as ruthless (like lance) as necessary to get on that podium.
as for discovery channel, hincapie is the easy pick, but i really just don't see it happening. he's a shorter distance man and he only got the stage wins b/c lance let him and no one cared about anyone but lance last year.
bringing me to my next point, ivan basso. i really don't know what to think about him this year. he has a ton of potential to succeed lance, but i just don't know. last year's race was all about keeping track of lance and basso used that to his advantage to be #2. granted, his time trial improved tremendously, so he really may be the man to beat. it's just so wide open, he's gonna need a solid team backing him in the mountains. i like the guy's chances though.
roberto heras, no - stick to the tour of spain, still don't think he can cut it at the tour...
i like floyd landis, i just really do. he just won the tour de georgia, so that's a nice little tune up and he's been looking good. i think he has a podium shot, but i don't think he can win either. same with tom danielson - i think he needs another year's tour experience under his belt, but i think he may be the future for discovery...
in conclusion, i think it is completely wide open which is why i am so terribly excited to watch it this year. it's anybody's race, but i like basso, he hung tough with lance in the mountains and i think he'll be the man to beat there once again. my underdog pick - bobby julich. but i think basso will be csc's man...so him or landis.
fin